2009 Final Quarterback WPA and EPA

Here are the final numbers for quarterback Win Probability Added (WPA) and Expected Points Added (EPA) for the 2009 season. These numbers include playoff performance. I've posted these stats previously for selected players, but this is the first time I've published a comprehensive list. This is the first time I've truly had confidence in the absolute values of the WPA stats. Previously, they really could only be relied on for relative comparisons between players.

Brees vs. Manning

A couple days ago, WSJ Numbers Guy Carl Bialik asked me to compare Drew Brees and Peyton Manning. I had recently looked at a comparison of Kurt Warner to other great QBs of his era, and for some reason Drew Brees hadn't crossed my mind. When I did run the career numbers for Brees, the results were surprisingly strong. If Brees plays well and the Saints win, perhaps his name needs to be in the discussion for the Hall of Fame.

Here is how the two Super Bowl QBs' careers compare in terms of Win Probability Added (WPA) since 2000. This includes playoffs and Super Bowls.

Is Kurt Warner a Hall of Famer? What Does WPA Say?

Kurt Warner announced his retirement Friday, and his Hall of Fame credentials have been a topic of conversation. Everyone is familiar with his career: three Super Bowl appearances, one ring, two MVP awards, and a compelling personal story that inspires grocery stock clerks around the country.

According to Pro-Football-Reference, his career Adjusted Net Yards Per Pass Attempt (net passing efficiency minus 45 yards for each interception and with a 20-yard bonus for each TD pass) is 6.7 ANY/A. That's very, very good, and it puts him in league with the era's best passers. But it's not called the Hall of Efficiency; it's the Hall of Fame.

With that in mind, we turn to Win Probability Added (WPA), a narrative stat uniquely suited for measuring performance in terms of how each play helps a team win or lose. Fame is about a lot of things, but it's primarily about wins, so let's see what WPA has to say.

Shane Lechler is Overrated...Or Is He?

I've been waiting for a good opportunity to write this article for a while. Recently, Carl Bialik at the WSJ asked me to take a look at some punting stats for a post on the 'Golden Age of Punting.' For the last few years, Shane Lechler has been lauded for his super-human punting ability.  For three of the last six years he's led the league in total punting yards, and for five of the last seven years he's lead the league in yards per punt. He'll be going to his fourth pro-bowl in a few weeks.

But, there's a problem with all those gaudy stats. Lechler has the benefit of playing for the Oakland Raiders, who for the last few seasons have fielded a terrible offense. Lechler, more than most other punters, gets to punt from deep in his own territory where the chance of a touchback doesn't shorten punts. We can call this the JaMarcus Effect.

In this post, I'll look at where Lechler's average field position is compared to the rest of the league. We'll see that this has a big effect on punt distances. But we'll also see that I'm wrong about Lechler in the end. Despite this unfair advantage, he's still the NFL's best.

The 2009 All-WPA Team

The day after the Pro Bowl rosters are announced there are the obligatory "snub" articles in local papers around the country. In the DC area, the annual London Fletcher snub article is simply reprinted from last year's Post. So what about those Vincent Jacksons and Cedric Bensons who were unfairly left off the roster in favor of big name stars who may not have had a particularly good year? Who really earned their ticket to Miami?

I'll compare players using two different stats. Win Probability Added (WPA) measures each play's increase or decrease in a team's chances of winning. For every play that a player is mentioned in the play-by-play description, including penalties, turnovers and everything else, the WPA is tallied in his name. WPA is a narrative stat. It tells the story of what happened and is very context-dependent. It measures performance when it matters most. It has limited applications in terms of predicting future player performance, but it my mind it's perfect for comparing Pro Bowl and MVP contenders--even Hall of Fame candidates once there's enough data.

Koko WR Fantasy Projections

Here is the next installment of the Koko The Monkey's fantasy football projections. Wide receivers are ranked based on a regression from last year's stats.

These projections are intended to be establish the baseline minimum accuracy of projections as the most reasonably naive predictions. The general explanation of the system can be found in the post ranking quarterbacks.

WR fantasy performance is far simpler than QB fantasy performance. Receiving yards and touchdowns are the only driving factors. Rushing or kick returning yards are ignored in these WR projections. Receiving yards and TDs appear to regress at similar rates from year to year, so these projected rankings will likely be a straight regurgitation of last year's end-of-year rankings.

I included WRs with at least 20 receptions in a season in the analysis. Depending on how high the cutoff, or which stat you use (yards, games, receptions), the regression rate is different. In the end however, the overall rankings aren't significantly affected, and the projected points are only slightly different.



Wide Receivers don't appear to have any consistency in terms of fumbles or injuries. They average 0.05 fumbles per game, with guys who get a lot of receptions obviously having more opportunities. WRs play in an average of 14.3 games in a season regardless of how many they played the year before.

I've removed Burress and Harrison, but I didn't spend much time looking through the list to find guys who may have retired or who may already be on the IR.

Rank	Name	TDs	Yds	Fum	Pts/G	Proj Pts
1	Anquan Boldin	0.54	71.1	0.07	6.6	95.0
2	Larry Fitzgerald	0.47	72.8	0.05	6.4	91.3
3	Calvin Johnson	0.47	69.2	0.06	6.2	88.5
4	Andre Johnson	0.38	78.1	0.05	6.1	87.0
5	Steve Smith CAR	0.35	79.9	0.05	6.0	85.6
6	Greg Jennings	0.40	67.8	0.05	5.7	81.7
7	Roddy White	0.36	71.1	0.05	5.6	80.0
8	Randy Moss	0.45	57.4	0.06	5.5	78.1
9	Brandon Marshall	0.34	69.8	0.06	5.4	77.5
10	Terrell Owens	0.43	59.0	0.05	5.4	77.4
11	Antonio Bryant	0.36	66.2	0.05	5.3	76.5
12	Lance Moore	0.43	54.5	0.05	5.2	74.3
13	Marques Colston	0.36	61.0	0.05	5.1	73.3
14	Vincent Jackson	0.36	60.7	0.05	5.1	72.6
15	Reggie Wayne	0.33	62.4	0.05	5.0	71.9
16	Hines Ward	0.36	58.7	0.05	5.0	71.1
17	Dwayne Bowe	0.36	57.9	0.05	4.9	70.7
18	Kevin Walter	0.38	53.4	0.05	4.9	69.5
19	Bernard Berrian	0.36	55.8	0.05	4.8	69.2
20	Santana Moss	0.33	58.7	0.05	4.8	69.2
21	Justin Gage	0.38	52.3	0.05	4.8	68.7
22	Eddie Royal	0.32	58.7	0.05	4.7	67.8
23	Deion Branch	0.38	50.7	0.05	4.7	67.5
24	Derrick Mason	0.31	58.5	0.05	4.7	66.8
25	Donald Driver	0.31	57.6	0.05	4.6	66.4
26	Wes Welker	0.26	63.1	0.05	4.6	66.2
27	Laveranues Coles	0.36	51.6	0.05	4.6	66.1
28	Isaac Bruce	0.36	51.1	0.05	4.6	65.8
29	Muhsin Muhammad	0.31	54.3	0.05	4.5	63.9
30	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	0.29	55.8	0.05	4.5	63.7
31	Santonio Holmes	0.32	52.6	0.05	4.4	63.3
32	Lee Evans	0.26	57.8	0.05	4.4	62.3
33	Steve Breaston	0.26	57.3	0.05	4.4	62.2
34	Jerricho Cotchery	0.31	51.9	0.05	4.3	62.1
35	Matt Jones	0.25	57.6	0.05	4.3	61.6
36	Greg Camarillo	0.26	53.1	0.05	4.1	59.0
37	Braylon Edwards	0.26	52.5	0.05	4.1	58.8
38	DeSean Jackson	0.24	53.9	0.05	4.0	57.6
39	Chad Ochocinco	0.31	44.8	0.05	4.0	57.2
40	Torry Holt	0.26	49.7	0.05	4.0	56.7
41	Devery Henderson	0.26	49.6	0.05	4.0	56.5
42	Michael Jenkins	0.26	49.0	0.05	3.9	56.2
43	Anthony Gonzalez	0.29	44.8	0.05	3.9	55.3
44	Chris Chambers	0.33	39.9	0.05	3.9	55.2
45	Kevin Curtis	0.28	45.9	0.05	3.9	55.2
46	Donnie Avery	0.27	46.8	0.05	3.9	55.1
47	Malcom Floyd	0.31	41.5	0.05	3.8	54.8
48	Devin Hester	0.27	46.5	0.05	3.8	54.7
49	Ted Ginn Jr.	0.24	49.5	0.06	3.8	54.2
50	Mark Clayton	0.26	46.0	0.05	3.8	54.1
51	Antwaan Randle El	0.29	42.3	0.05	3.7	53.5
52	Amani Toomer	0.29	41.8	0.05	3.7	53.0
53	Nate Washington	0.26	43.6	0.05	3.7	52.4
54	Patrick Crayton	0.29	40.7	0.05	3.7	52.2
55	Josh Reed	0.22	47.4	0.05	3.6	51.6
56	Mark Bradley	0.29	39.1	0.05	3.6	51.2
57	Brandon Stokley	0.27	41.2	0.05	3.6	51.1
58	Dennis Northcutt	0.25	43.3	0.05	3.5	50.6
59	Bobby Wade	0.24	44.1	0.05	3.5	50.5
60	Bryant Johnson	0.26	40.5	0.05	3.5	50.2
61	Jerheme Urban	0.29	37.0	0.05	3.5	49.7
62	Brandon Lloyd	0.26	39.9	0.05	3.5	49.6
63	Domenik Hixon	0.24	42.4	0.05	3.5	49.5
64	Koren Robinson	0.25	40.1	0.05	3.4	49.2
65	Josh Morgan	0.29	36.1	0.05	3.4	49.1
66	Ike Hilliard	0.29	36.1	0.05	3.4	48.9
67	Hank Baskett	0.27	37.7	0.05	3.4	48.5
68	Roy Williams	0.27	37.4	0.05	3.4	48.3
69	Johnnie Lee Higgins	0.29	34.0	0.05	3.3	47.5
70	Steve Smith NYG	0.22	41.3	0.05	3.3	47.0
71	Davone Bess	0.22	40.8	0.05	3.2	46.4
72	Chansi Stuckey	0.27	34.6	0.05	3.2	46.3
73	Jabar Gaffney	0.24	37.7	0.05	3.2	46.2
74	Rashied Davis	0.24	36.8	0.05	3.2	45.5
75	Reggie Williams	0.26	33.9	0.05	3.2	45.5
76	Bobby Engram	0.19	42.6	0.05	3.2	45.5
77	Michael Clayton	0.22	39.5	0.05	3.2	45.4
78	Jason Avant	0.24	35.3	0.05	3.1	44.7
79	Arnaz Battle	0.19	41.2	0.05	3.1	44.6
80	James Jones	0.23	36.6	0.05	3.1	44.6
81	Shaun McDonald	0.22	36.8	0.06	3.1	43.8
82	Brandon Jones	0.22	37.0	0.05	3.1	43.7
83	Jordy Nelson	0.24	34.0	0.05	3.0	43.5
84	Dane Looker	0.25	32.7	0.06	3.0	43.3
85	Jason Hill	0.24	32.2	0.05	2.9	42.1
86	Justin McCareins	0.19	37.8	0.06	2.9	41.9
87	Harry Douglas	0.22	32.3	0.05	2.8	40.3
88	Roscoe Parrish	0.22	31.0	0.05	2.8	39.8
89	Antonio Chatman	0.19	31.9	0.05	2.6	37.8
90	Brian Finneran	0.22	26.8	0.05	2.5	36.2

Air Yards 2008

Trying to measure individual performance in football is nearly impossible. Perhaps kickers are the only players whose performance we can isolate from the rest of his team. The position in a distant second might be the quarterback. But measuring QB performance with statistics is still very problematic. Consider this tale of two QBs.

One quarterback led his team to a 12-4 regular season record after starting slow at 3-3. He won the Associated Press's MVP award. Another quarterback was replaced due to ineffectiveness early in the season by an aging journeyman best known for headbutting a stadium wall. Which one would you want on your team? You wouldn't be able to tell from their official stats.

Although one didn't play the entire season, both passers had nearly identical "per attempt stats." The first QB threw for 7.2 yards per attempt and the second QB threw for 7.1. They both had a 95 NFL passer rating. Actually, Tavaris Jackson's was 95.4 and Peyton Manning's was 95. But then again, I might be able to approach a 95 rating if I were throwing dump-offs to Adrian Peterson.

If football were a brand new invention, and we had to decide how to credit the various amounts of yards gained to various players, how would we do it? If I said, "There's this kind of play called a pass, in which a thrower passes the ball to a another player who then runs with it as far as he can. I say we credit all the yards run by the receiver to the thrower," you'd say I was nuts.

I'd say, "Well, it takes a special kind of talent for a passer to get a lot of yardage after the catch (YAC). I won't be able to prove it, in fact, I won't have any evidence for that statement at all, but I still think our primary measure of a passer should include all those yards." I'd be laughed at.

Here are the QBs from 2007 who led the league in percent of their passing yardage as YAC: Croyle, Testaverde, Greise, Harrington, Favre, McCown, Losman, and Lemon. The 2006 list includes Brunell, Carr, Favre, (Rob) Johnson, and (Alex) Smith. There's isn't a single guy on that list who we can call a legitimate starter.

The 2008 season's list of leaders in %YAC include Cassel, O'Sullivan, Campbell, Favre (again), Losman, and Wallace. But Matt Cassel is good, right? Maybe not. Keep in mind how good the team around him was. He was handed the keys to a Ferrari. If a QB racks up his passing yards with YAC, he's either throwing lots of short check-downs and screens, or he has spectacular receivers--or both. Neither is necessarily an indication of a particularly skilled passer.

If we throw away all the YAC and look underneath, what do we have left? I call it Air Yards (AY). It's the distance forward of the line of scrimmage a pass travels. Although it's not a perfect measure of a passer, I think it makes a lot more sense than crediting Donovan McNabb with 71 yards and a touchdown for a 1-yard screen pass to Brian Westbrook.

To be clear, I'm not claiming that a QB has absolutely zero contribution to YAC. The QB has to complete the pass for there to be any YAC in the first place. It's just that the majority of credit assignable between the QB and receiver is due to the receiver. (Much of it can be attributed to the defense and to random variation). Plus, there are better ways of crediting the QB for a completion. Looking at Air Yards at least tells us a lot about a QB that we wouldn't otherwise know. I might be throwing a little of the signal out with the bathwater, but the remaining signal-to-noise ratio is hopefully much better.

Here is how the 2008 regular season Air Yard stats break out. Click on the table headers to sort.

Rank	Name	Team	Yds	YAC	YAC%	AY/Att
1	Delhomme		3288	1269	39	4.9
2	Ryan		3440	1404	41	4.7
3	Rivers		4009	1840	46	4.5
4	Rodgers		4038	1652	41	4.5
5	Pennington		3653	1546	42	4.4
6	Rosenfels		1431	664	46	4.4
7	Cutler		4526	1881	42	4.3
8	Manning P		4002	1627	41	4.3
9	Manning E		3238	1220	38	4.2
10	Brees		5069	2398	47	4.2
11	Romo		3448	1578	46	4.2
12	Schaub		3043	1470	48	4.1
13	Roethlisberger		3301	1368	41	4.1
14	Warner		4583	2173	47	4.0
15	Hill		2046	895	44	4.0
16	Garrard		3620	1494	41	4.0
17	Garcia		2712	1248	46	3.9
18	Edwards		2699	1266	47	3.8
19	Orlovsky		1616	652	40	3.8
20	Frerotte		2157	1023	47	3.8
21	Jackson		1056	502	48	3.7
22	McNabb		3916	1805	46	3.7
23	Hasselbeck		1216	451	37	3.7
24	O'Sullivan		1678	887	53	3.6
25	Flacco		2971	1433	48	3.6
26	Thigpen		2608	1101	42	3.6
27	Russell		2423	1143	47	3.5
28	Collins		2676	1292	48	3.3
29	Orton		2972	1450	49	3.3
30	Favre		3472	1779	51	3.2
31	Quinn		518	230	44	3.2
32	Wallace		1532	755	49	3.2
33	Griese		1073	488	45	3.2
34	Anderson		1615	724	45	3.1
35	Bulger		2720	1336	49	3.1
36	Campbell		3245	1686	52	3.1
37	Cassel		3693	2116	57	3.1
38	Palmer		731	358	49	2.9
39	Fitzpatrick		1905	848	45	2.8
40	Losman		584	294	50	2.8